SeedBlink Blog

David H. Keller introduced the concept of self-driving cars in 1935, transforming what was once science fiction into today's reality. Now, the focus has shifted to self-driving buses. While the idea of a car that drives itself, allowing the driver to relax, is appealing, a driverless bus, navigating city streets, raises significant questions. How safe are these buses? Does this technology contribute to the growing concern of AI displacing jobs? In fact, self-driving buses can offer substantial societal benefits. Let's delve into how this innovation can create a safer future for both drivers and passengers.

Addressing the bus driver shortage

Concerns about driverless buses leading to job losses are mainly unfounded. In reality, Europe faces a bus driver shortage of 10%, leaving 105,000 positions unfilled. This shortage has increased by 54% since 2022, and projections for 2028 suggest it will likely double (Source: IRU.org). The current shortage forces many bus drivers to work split shifts and overtime, jeopardizing their health and driving safety.

Legislative landscape and job security for bus drivers

In the USA, current legislation mandates that driverless buses, regardless of their technological advancements, must have a supervising driver on board. This requirement ensures job security for bus drivers. However, it is anticipated that these laws will evolve over time.

In contrast, Europe is already laying the groundwork for the legal operation of driverless buses, with Germany permitting them on certain roads. This raises the question: will bus drivers become redundant? Adastec, the developer of SAE Level 4 automated driving software, believes otherwise. Their vision is for transportation agencies to create new career paths for bus drivers, offering opportunities for career advancement and safer working conditions.

In essence, bus drivers will transition to the role of bus operators, where they will oversee multiple buses from a central platform, ensuring passenger safety and efficient traffic management. This shift not only secures their employment but also enhances their professional development and working environment.

Scaling up quickly

Adastec, founded in 2018, is the most advanced company in the full-size bus automation market. Headquartered in Michigan, USA, with engineering teams in Turkey, Adastec is pioneering a safer future for drivers and the public by developing automated, shared, and connected commercial vehicles. Their Flowride.ai software platform, designed for full-size buses, utilizes fault-tolerant sensors, HD maps, advanced sensor fusion, and deep learning techniques to ensure reliability and safety. Notably, Adastec is the only company currently licensed to deliver autonomous buses in the USA and has signed manufacturer agreements to supply a complete factory-fitted solution. It has already been in operation for two years in Michigan (NHTSA approved) and for 20 months in Norway (TUV Nord approved).

As a fast-scaling startup, Adastec secured its first deal with SeedBlink and a private equity firm. They are now raising a $20 million round at a $15 million post-money valuation. With paying customers in Norway, Turkey, the Netherlands, and Romania, Adastec is solidifying its position as a global leader in autonomous bus technology.

A broader look at the bus market and Adastec's solutions

With increasing concerns about environmental issues, rising gas costs, and overall traffic congestion, more people are choosing to drive less. Consequently, the global bus market is projected to grow at an 8% CAGR, reaching $72 billion by 2028, up from $47 billion in 2022. This trend presents a significant opportunity for Adastec, which offers buses that are five times more cost-effective than traditional models: each bus has a setup cost of $100,000 and an annual license fee of $50,000. At this rate, Adastec expects to break even by 2026, having sold 200 buses.

Adastec has already secured three OEM agreements for automated buses with Karsan (EU), Custom Denning (Australia), and VCM (USA). Additionally, five deployment agreements have been successfully implemented in the US, Norway, France, Romania, and Turkey. The company boasts a total pipeline of $32 million, including $7 million under contract in France, Israel, Turkey, Germany, and Australia.

Adastec is driven by its team of five complementary co-founders and a dedicated workforce of 75 full-time employees, including 60 engineers. This success story demonstrates that future technologies are not intended to steal jobs but to address labour shortages, enhance employees' lives, and create a safer future for everyone.

Explore their active raise on SeedBlink here.