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About forming one's own opinions.

screen-shot-2022-09-15-at-14

Ionut Patrahau

· 3 min read
About forming one's own opinions.
Certainties? A utopia

Editorial written by Ionuț Pătrăhău, Managing Partner and Corporate Development @ SeedBlink. In addition to his extensive experience in banking, Ionuț Pătrăhău has also worked in the healthcare sector. He was CEO of the private healthcare network Regina Maria and co-founder of the Brain Institute, a centre for neurosurgery developed in collaboration with Monza Hospital.

Positive, negative, divided, but always accurate.

Because if you do not end a polemic with a clear conclusion, readers will discredit you and eventually stop reading what you wrote.

We read subjective articles about the development of the war in Ukraine every day. Those who are in the middle of the action - Ukrainians and Russians - are motivated to report in terms of their own interests, distorting reality in one direction or another and thus becoming too unreliable. Those who are on the sidelines of events are not well informed and think up possible, probable or impossible and improbable scenarios.

As for the economic and social impact of the conflict, while the information should be more certain, we are dealing with so many variables that any conclusion based on past trends in economic cycles seems credible...

There are people, institutions, countries that speculate every trend in the international markets in their favour. Remember that people bought tulip bulbs during the Tulip Crisis, overvalued stocks on the newly created New York Stock Exchange during the Great Crash, or, to return to recent events, bought digital assets during the Internet Bubble or meaningless real estate during the Lehman Brothers crisis.

Legend has it that during these crises there were also a small number of people who bet against the tide and got rich. If this is true, it means that each of us, without jumping to conclusions, could focus on what we do best. In this way, we minimise the risk of getting lost in the variables and details we do not know and can not understand, without taking conclusions, judgments, threats or encouragements seriously.

This is the essence of acting wisely. It is the delicate balance between optimism and caution.

While we cannot be optimistic and cautious at the same time, we can alternate between the two states, and against the backdrop of optimism, we can conduct a cautious reality check from time to time, preferably before making important investment decisions.

Investments should not be made arbitrarily, but on the basis of information. If we do not have objective information, we should not invest. Investing in the herd is one of the most dangerous undertakings, as history proves. Study your portfolios and make sure they are diversified and balanced, both in terms of areas and risk taken. Know your limits. Do not venture into the ocean just because you can swim.

And when Nouriel Roubini predicts a major crisis these days, he does so to encourage you to use your knowledge to minimise risk, not to invest in nothing.

Here I find myself offering advice and judgement, contradicting the whole apologia at the beginning of the post. My apologies. But the saying goes, "Do as the Pope says, not as the Pope does.

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